Guide
Misses and guaranteed makes
The bad-luck counter and other forced outcomes.
The game keeps a bad-luck counter for each shot type. Every miss adds that shot's chance to its counter, and once the counter reaches 100%, your next shot of that type is guaranteed to go in. Any make resets the counter to zero.
How the counter works
- There is one counter per shot type. Missing threes builds the three-point counter only; it does nothing for layups.
- A miss adds its own chance. A missed 30% shot adds 30 points; a missed 60% shot adds 60.
- 100 points guarantees the next one. The shot that starts with the counter at 100 or more goes in, even if its roll fails.
- A make resets it. Every make of that type, lucky or guaranteed, sets that counter back to zero.
Example with a 35% three-pointer, missing every time:
| Attempt | Counter before the shot | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Miss, counter becomes 35 |
| 2 | 35 | Miss, counter becomes 70 |
| 3 | 70 | Miss, counter becomes 105 |
| 4 | 105 | Guaranteed make, counter resets |
So at a steady 35% you cannot miss more than three threes in a row. In general the longest possible run of misses is about 100 ÷ your chance, in percent.
The no-repeat rule
The roll is not independent from shot to shot. The game remembers each player's last roll, with one memory for two-point shots (close, mid-range, layup and dunk all share it) and one for threes. A new roll that lands too close to the last one is thrown away and rolled again:
- Two-point shots: the new roll must be at least 25 points (2,500) away from your last two-point roll.
- Threes: at least 20 points (2,000) away from your last three-point roll.
- The distance wraps around, so a roll of 95 is only 10 points from a roll of 5.
Steals, ankle-breakers and interceptions have the same rule with 15 points.
This was read from the code (SlamDunk.Random, constants rand_parm_two and rand_parm_three) and confirmed in 20
recorded matches: over 450 pairs of consecutive rolls, almost none broke it (the few exceptions are probably shots
right on the three-point line, logged under the wrong kind).
After a make, the next shot of that kind is less likely
A make usually means a low roll, and the next roll can't be near it. Chance of making the next shot of the same kind at the same chance:
| Your chance | Two-pointer after a make | Two-pointer after a miss | Three after a make | Three after a miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| 30% | 2% | 42% | 6% | 41% |
| 40% | 11% | 59% | 17% | 56% |
| 50% | 25% | 75% | 30% | 70% |
| 60% | 41% | 89% | 44% | 83% |
| 70% | 58% | 98% | 60% | 94% |
| 80% | 75% | 100% | 75% | 100% |
| 90% | 89% | 100% | 89% | 100% |
So a 20–30% three-point shooter essentially can't hit two threes in a row, and after a miss the next one is more likely than usual. Over a whole match the average is still about your chance; the rule only reshuffles when the makes come. The memory is the roll, not the result: a dunk that went in with a low roll also blocks low rolls on your next mid-range jumper.
Your first shot of each match is harder
The memory starts each match as if your last roll were exactly the window size. Your first two-point roll therefore can't be under 50 (5,000), and your first three-point roll can't be under 40 (4,000). The only exception is a roll of exactly 0.
| Your chance | First two-pointer goes in | First three goes in |
|---|---|---|
| 40% or less | almost never | almost never |
| 50% | almost never | 17% |
| 60% | 20% | 33% |
| 70% | 40% | 50% |
| 80% | 60% | 67% |
| 90% | 80% | 83% |
| 100% | 100% | 100% |
In the recorded matches, players' first threes went in 9 times out of 38.
Other guaranteed or forced results
- "Must make" effects. An effect of type 200, or a skill that forces the goal, makes the shot go in. It also resets the counter.
- Tutorial and practice steps can force misses so the lesson plays out.
- A developer switch can force makes or misses per team. It is probably off in normal matches.
What this means for you
- Don't abandon a shot type after a cold streak. The more you've missed with it, the closer you are to a guaranteed make.
- Low-percentage shots build the counter slowly. Missed 20% shots add little, so a bad shooter can miss five in a row.
- Spreading shots across types splits the counters. Sticking to one shot type fills its counter faster.
- Open each match at the rim. Your first two-pointer only goes in on a chance above 50%, and dunks and layups are usually well above that. Save your first three for a wide-open look, since it needs more than 40% to have any chance.
- After a lucky make, switch. If you just hit a low-percentage three, your next three is close to a sure miss; drive or pass instead. The two-point and three-point memories are separate.
- After a miss, go again. Your next shot of that kind is more likely than usual to go in (see the table).