How a shot is decided

Every shot goes through two steps: the game works out a make chance, then rolls a random number against it. The result is decided once, by this calculation; the ball's flight is animated to match it, not simulated.

flowchart LR
    A[Shot taken] --> B{Which shot type?}
    B --> C[Shot chance<br/>stat curve x base hit rate<br/>+ boosts<br/>x 1 - contest<br/>+ open-shot bonus]
    C --> D[Final chance<br/>+ character bonus]
    D --> E{Roll 0-9,999<br/>at or under final chance?}
    E -- yes --> F[Make]
    E -- no --> G{Bad-luck counter<br/>full?}
    G -- yes --> F
    G -- no --> H[Miss<br/>counter grows]

Step 1: the chance

The game first decides the shot type (close shot, mid-range, three, layup or dunk; see Pick the right shot). Each type then builds its chance the same way:

1. Your shooting stat goes through a curve and is multiplied by your base hit rate for that shot type.
2. Boosts are added. Buffs, skins, titles, talents, awakening, ball items and badges each add flat points (Building your players).
3. Contest is applied. Your chance is multiplied by (1 − total contest from defenders guarding you) (Contests, on offense and defense).
4. Open shots get a bonus. If the game flags you as open, a separate open-shot bonus is added. It is large: up to +50 points on dunks (Building your players).
5. A cap of 100% is applied, and threes also take a distance falloff (Three-pointers and range).

Step 2: the roll

The game adds two small extras to the chance:

• A character bonus, from character-specific skill logic.
• A random bump between the player card's "speciality" minimum and maximum, re-rolled every shot. Every playable card has both set to 0, so in practice there is no bump unless something else changes them.

Then it rolls a whole number from 0 to 9,999. If the roll is at or under the final chance, the shot goes in. A chance of 4,500 therefore means about a 45% make rate.

The roll comes from the game's own seeded random generator, not the system one. That fits a match that every player's device simulates identically to stay in sync. It is not an independent roll each time: your next roll can't land close to your previous one, and your first roll of each match can't be low. See the no-repeat rule.

Things that skip the roll

Some situations decide the shot without the roll mattering:

• The bad-luck counter is full: guaranteed make (Misses and guaranteed makes).
• A "must make" effect is active (an effect of type 200, or a skill that forces the goal): guaranteed make.
• Tutorial and practice steps can force misses.

What this means for you

• A 40% chance is 40% on average, not shot by shot. Over many matches a 40% shot goes in about 40% of the time, but the no-repeat rule makes your first shot of a match less likely and makes back-to-back makes rare.
• There is no "hot hand". The game works against streaks: a lucky make makes the next shot of the same kind less likely to go in, and a bad miss makes it more likely (Misses and guaranteed makes).